The Horror
“The end of June saw temperatures soar all around the United States, with historic heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest and excessive heat advisories, watches and warnings elsewhere. The heat is not just uncomfortable, it’s deadly, buckling roads and melting bridges, with temperatures climbing over 120 degrees in Death Valley, California and British Columbia” (In These Times, 2021).
The horror.
When discussing probability with the students I work with — at the end of June — we noticed how not knowing affects us. What has been called “ambiguity aversion”. That is, people are much happier when they know what the options are and what the possibilities are (BBC News, 2016).
Ambiguity aversion has been documented in real-life situations. For instance, it leads people to avoid participating in the stock market, which has unknown risks (Easley & O’Hara, 2009), and to avoid certain medical treatments when the risks are less known (Berger et al., 2013).
That’s when statistics come to the rescue. There is something very reassuring about putting numbers on things. Statistics can turn some uncertainties into measurable risks. It could be as simple as calculating the probability of rain tomorrow or the possibility of surviving an illness.
Arguably, there is hardly any other place where this is more true than in war. In fact, it is often said that war is the realm of uncertainty. So how do soldiers prepare for it? One of the things they try to do is reduce the number of variables they don’t understand or are not prepared for. The idea is to have some control over the factors that could hurt them.
Indeed, soldiers have a habit of continually preparing themselves and are trained to make independent decisions, if need be. In the end, the habit becomes so ingrained that it is applied even in the most innocuous situations. As if nothing was left to chance.
However, some uncertainties are subject to so many variables, that they are by their very nature indomitable. When it comes to issues like climate change and you face “the opponent,” it is dangerous to deceive yourself and think that uncertainty has turned into opportunity.
“While the 100 million computer workers in this country are more likely to be able to work safely indoors, other urgent and necessary work must continue outdoors, no matter the severity of the weather. The entirety of the working class is (or will be) affected by climate change, but it’s farm workers, letter carriers, construction workers, sanitation workers and other outdoor workers who are unable to escape to air conditioning, and are on the front lines of the environmental crisis” (In These Times, 2021).
The horror.
Handmade paper by Aydasara Ortega Torres
